Monopoly Chance Cards: Deal or No Deal?
Posted on September 22, 2009 by BenI was looking through one of my old composition books and aparently I was really board one day. I wrote statistics for Monopoly.
Come on and click the read more link already, I can tell your already salivating with anticipation!
Chance has 16 cards [at least in my deck, a very old one]. Should you pick or not? There are 4 bad cards and 4 good cards. 3 worse cards [sic] and 5 conditional cards. [Conditional cards] send you to certain spaces on the board, can be good or bad, depending if the property is owned or unowned. On the first turn, there is a 75% chance [of a good thing happening]. If the nearest railroad is owned, there is a 63% chance [of a good card being picked]. If St. Charles, Illionois Ave, or Boardwalk is owned, or if the 3 spaces behind you are owned, 69% [chance of getting a good card]. If Reading is the nearest railroad, then 56% [um... I think you know now.]. If St. Charles and Illinois Ave are owned, 67%. If St. Charles or Illinois or Boardwalk are owned and the spaces 3 behind you are owned, 67%. If St. Charles, Illinois, and Boardwalk are owned, 56%. Etc [I guess I got bored of writing the multiple probabilities considering the many combinations of ownerships]. There is never less than a 50% chance of a good card.
Deal.
Well, isn’t wonderful to know these things now? Now you can play Monopoly without fear, chaps!
I don’t know of the mathematical validity of this reasoning, but I certainly have had good luck with Chance cards.
